The movement towards a return to living in communities is one that is growing in momentum in Australia and world-wide. Smaller micro-communities and larger ventures are springing up alongside others that have been long-established.

Yet many people also consider a move to community living with a mixture of curiosity, dread, some fear and uncertainty over losing independence and whether or not it is a truly viable option. Done the right way and with the right approach, living in a community can provide an immensely rewarding lifestyle and quality of life.

However, without a good organisational structure and a clear sense of direction, communities can run the risk of ending up as simply a microcosm of what is happening in the outside world – the type of situation many have been set up to try and grow beyond.

Working bee and Communities Convergence Conference at Bellbunya Community

The return to living in communities is being fuelled by awareness and a growing bulk of eco-scientific evidence that intensive living in sprawling cities, booming population growth, spiralling property prices, pressure on water supply and infrastructure and a world facing finite and dwindling resources is a recipe for unsustainability.

Governments have been pursuing a cheery and seemingly reassuring drive towards a healthy-appearing economy. But the underlying disquiet over sustainability is becoming too loud to ignore.

Several years ago I interviewed Richard Heinberg, from California, one of the world’s leading authorities on the anticipated/looming peak oil crisis.

Richard’s medium-term vision for Australia was one of people in cities being forced to divide into smaller, more sustainable urban communities focussed around co-operative growing of community-garden food sources and shared resources.

Once fuel becomes too expensive or sparse to support the agricultural industry and the transport of food supplies to hungry cities relying on the food chain of local supermarkets, people will have little option but to adapt to a massive change in lifestyle and approach to self sustainability.

As Richard pointed out, much of the world has been complacent over the need to learn the skills to support a new way of existence. It is part of human nature to leave things until it is forced upon us and then rely on crisis management.

Some conditioned to materialism and convenience will do it painfully, others will adapt with resilience. But it does not need to be an issue around fear. Richard predicted that those who do adapt to the change proactively will help to create a new paradigm of human co-operation and a much more enlightened and healthy society based on people values.

Many spearheading the movement towards communities are pioneering new methods of resourcefulness and skills sharing, it is an evolving industry of learning and adaptation.

Yet many people also consider a move to community living with a mixture of curiosity, dread, some fear and uncertainty over losing independence and whether or not it is a truly viable option.

SUCCESSFUL COMMUNITIES
Creating a successful community requires some fundamental elements, which can be viewed as a balance of Yin and Yang, or head and heart – Spiritual values and communication to support people and resolve human issues, and effective organisational systems to keep practical day-to-day needs running efficiently and maintain progress.

Where many communities struggle is in not having an effective organisational or project management system to share the inevitable workload and development that needs to take place.

It often falls on the shoulders of a few inspired people who eventually lose motivation and become discouraged.

One well-proven system involves dividing the community up into key areas of responsibility that are each overseen by a small working group, meaning all bases can be covered.

Effective use of time/energy and “people-power” teams means the whole community can move as a workforce resource around these different areas and knock out what needs to be done, under the direction of the relevant working group and using checklists they have devised.

A team of 12 working in a concerted way for just a few hours, or one hour a day, can achieve what a few people would take a week to do. With a bit of practice and commitment, it can become very streamlined.

The Spiritual health benefits to the community come from a great boost in morale from the teamwork, a sense of achievement and progress, and a learning of tolerance and camaraderie from working alongside others.

It is building this sort of co-operative effort and team contribution mindset that will be a strong and vital asset in years to come. Traditional communities like the Amish of North America, through to the tribal communities of the Pacific Islands and New Zealand have always had this down-pat.

Likewise they always take time to celebrate and acknowledge their achievements, which can be one of the great joys of living in community. Singing, jokes, conversation, building valuable, genuine friendships and a shared meal afterwards are great motivators.

PERSONAL IDENTITY
Often one of the biggest arguments to living in community and one of the biggest reasons why people leave, or resist the desire to live in community, is the feeling of losing the “sense of self”, or being absorbed in the needs of the community and the issues of others.

The system above is one key in helping to overcome this. When people know there are consistently scheduled times when they can fulfil their contribution to community and responsibilities are clarified, the rest of their time and independence becomes clear.

A Spiritual mentor I had always had a favourite saying: “When things are organised, people are relaxed. When things are disorganised, people get under pressure.”  It is an important energy to understand.

Another vital key, particularly in a close community is having a clear understanding of the distinct and different energies of personal time, business time and social time.  And likewise personal space, business space and social space.  It is a necessary advance on understanding healthy boundaries, and very effective.

Living in community can sometimes be like living in a giant share house. There is always someone who wants to chat when others are trying to stay focused on important business or earning a living from their space within the community. Fragmentation and distraction can be energy-sapping and the financial vitality of the community as a whole can suffer if this area is not understood clearly and practised proactively and with a positive, co-operative attitude.

SPIRITUAL WELLBEING
The Spiritual health or wellbeing of a community can also determine its overall vitality and success.

Community living by its very nature can attract people who are inherently creative and possibly a little rebellious against the idea of status quo. It is often why they have left the mainstream.

Recognising and appreciating this and giving it space and direction to flourish can utilise some of people’s strongest assets. Anywhere there are people living together there will unavoidably be conflicts and differences of opinion. It is vital to have regular communication or clearing circles where the community gets together as a whole and creates a genuine, safe “heart space” to hear each other fairly and focus on creating solutions to give that energy direction.

Nothing can cause frustration and resentment in people more than feeling they are not being heard or listened to. Over time, small grievances can build into larger resentment if regular clearing circles are not being held. What is not being expressed will still be felt uncomfortably on an intuitive level.

Heart circles can require some good facilitation skills, and if the role is shared around it can become a major area of personal growth for anyone. Done well, the heart circles can also be a great area of personal growth, communication and character development, moral support and personal wellbeing for many.

Communities which have a common Spiritual belief and values focus, such as Buddhism, already have a great advantage.

Where this is not the case, a mixture of different beliefs and values systems can benefit from having a concerted focus effort to reach agreement on the core values and mission statement of the community.

Some form of optional Spiritual development group, as well as healthy lifestyle practices such as yoga and meditation, can become the life blood and cultural richness of a community and nourish its people.

Communicating or relating workshops such as the increasingly popular Non-Violent Communication can be a vital asset for maintaining harmony.

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY
Living in a closer community can sometimes be like an ongoing workshop, and it can also be a great deal of fun and growth and source of enduring friendships. It helps greatly if people have the character resilience of a sense of humour and some personal development training, or if this is an ongoing activity within the community.

Areas of self-awareness like tolerance, patience, listening skills, good verbal communication, respect for people’s space and views, honesty and integrity can become valuable assets to getting on with others.

It is a good basis also if people become aware of their own motivations and what is involved in living in community, so it is a clear and conscious choice. Finding a community that resonates in values is a wise move also.

LEARNING CENTRES
It can be a great benefit if a community sets up its own ‘learning centre’, where people with different skills can run workshops or exchange knowledge or services and healing modalities.

This can create an avenue for bringing income and valuable cashflow opportunities into the community also.

Often communities have a particular strength or success they have developed, such as renewable energy source, developing biodynamic or permaculture food supply, cottage industries, low-cost building practices, or obtaining grants and funding.

A project I am working on with a few other community-builders is developing an exchange network between communities where facilitators can travel to share their individual skills and knowledge with other organisations.

As these various aspects of a community and its structure develop and strengthen, they begin to attract more of the type of people with the skills and motivation to want to help make a difference.

With the right approach, communities can become a vibrant, efficient, growing and viable option for sustainable living and shared resources, rich in people and culture.

***

WORKSHOPS

Paul will run a series of workshops at the Bellbunya Community eco-conference centre, at Belli Park,  10km from Eumundi, on the Eumundi – Kenilworth Rd.

Saturday, July 31, from 6.30pm – 9pm:  COMMUNICATE AND LISTEN, on safe relating and heart circle skills. Cost $30.

Sunday, August 1,  from 8.30am to 5pm:  MANAGING EFFICIENT COMMUNITY,  this will include setting up a community project management system that can be adapted for share-housing or a business.  Cost $100. Bring a plate for shared lunch.

Monday, August 2, For those wanting to stay overnight, practical coaching on team-building projects will run from 9am to noon.  
Bookings:  (07) 5447-0181 or  0429-478-129, or paulmis@powerup.com.au

See:  www.bellbunya.org.au for details.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paul Mischefski is a journalist, photographer, environment and social issues writer and lifeskills trainer. He has studied communities from the Pacific Island and New Zealand cultures to the Amish of North America and societies in Northern India. Paul has lectured extensively throughout the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and spent several years in the US helping to manage a world-wide chain of Spiritual retreat centres. He runs Spirit In Organisation Processes For Communities.

Looking to the future: Eumundi-based permaculture teacher and author, Janet Millington. Image by: Anastasia Holt

The Sunshine Coast, as the world’s first recognised Transition Region within Australia, is an environmental pioneer. Eumundi-based permaculture teacher and author Janet Millington, explains the concept.

“It focuses on helping communities overcome fossil fuel dependencies in the face of peak oil and climate change. It means asking people to reassess their need for petrol, plastics, electricity, imported goods, remotely-grown foods and long-distance travel. It means asking people to consider their means of survival when dwindling resources reach record prices or disappear altogether, when climate change brings devastating storms and mercury-busting weather which cannot be fought by traditional fuel-infused means”.

Transition Town provides alternatives and answers for people to incorporate in their everyday lives.

“If something has to come a long way or is fossil fuel based, make sure you have alternatives. Try to buy local and to support businesses that are trying to compete with global-market forces. Network with neighbours and within your local community, to find people with expertise that can help you become prepared. Understand that this is something that cannot be done alone and that we need to improve our communication and decision making skills as we will succeed or fail only as a group,” she said.

Millington believes the Sunshine Coast is well and truly up to the challenge and points to the proactive stance of many Coast communities as proof of the region’s natural abilities.

The Sunshine Coast is proud of its leadership

“The Sunshine Coast is a leader with a long tradition of good environmental warriors who have fought hard to replace forests or not allow them to be cut down in the first place. We have a population with the economic means and business savvy to see opportunities in the changes that need to be made and we have a Council that is willing and asking for direction from its community. We have much of our eco-services intact or able to be restored and we have good minds that are wise in science and technology and are equally creative. The Sunshine Coast was the first initiative outside the United Kingdom and the first to be not simply a town.”

According to Janet, several local towns are well on their way to self reliance, such as Transition Eudlo, Transition Maleny and Transition Cooran, and urges all Coast householders to take steps toward greater regional independence. Succeeding as a group undoubtedly means the Sunshine Coast will continue to be known as one of the cleanest, greenest, lifestyle-oriented regions in the world, no matter what the future holds. It is one of the main messages of this year’s Sunshine Coast World Environment Day Festival.

From Sonya Wallace from the Sunshine Coast Energy Action Centre

These are truly unprecedented times for us all. The world is having to face up to the consequences of years of reliance on fossil fuels as a cheap energy source. We are facing a future of climate and energy uncertainty. Our dependency on oil as a cheap energy source has left us in a vulnerable position. We are reliant on the very thing which is causing such significant environmental damage.

And you are probably thinking will this affect me? Yes it will. What can you do about it? Well the answer is plenty. We need to act collectively and we need to act now. This is a time for a war-like response we need resources, funding, people and action. Every day, every choice you make has consequences. This is where you can make a real difference starting right now. Make choices that help you move from oil dependency and create local resilience. We will be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. It is far better to ride that wave rather than to be engulfed by it. Here are a couple of examples of what you can do.

Food

We all eat, yet what impact is your dinner having on climate change and how dependent are you on fossil fuel for getting that food to your table?

Research by CERES in Victoria found that 29 items (dairy, meat, fresh food, legume products and processed goods) purchased at a supermarket in Victoria had travelled a total of 70,803 kilometres. That’s three times around Australia’s coastline.

So each shopping trolley passing through checkouts across Australia has the potential to have the equivalent fossil fuel use and carbon emissions of you getting in your car and travelling almost twice around the equator.

This tally of kilometres known as food miles is something we should all be considering when we shop.

Buying locally grown, in-season, organic food is one of the most important things you can do to combat climate change and to help prepare our region for the flow on effects of peak oil. By supporting these systems now and increasing demand in the region for them, you are creating a consumer demand for locally grown food and significantly reducing your household ecological footprint. Help build the systems now that will support us in the future and that strengthen our communities.

There are many ways you can access fresh local food; farmers’ markets, community supported agriculture programs, organic food co-operatives, bulk buying with neighbours, school and community gardens, neighbourhood food growing co-ops and growing some (or a lot) of your own food at home in your backyard.

Buying organic food is also an important choice you can make. Non-organic food relies heavily on the application of fossil fuel-based fertilisers, pesticides, fungicides and herbicides to feed the soil, manage pests and treat fungal and weed problems. As fuel prices rise, so to will the flow-on effect the food you buy. Organic food production does away with the need for these.

Organic soil is supported by using compost, worm castings, green manure crops and crop rotation methods. Pests are managed predominantly without sprays, but if anything is applied the product is certified organic and safe for human consumption.

Your consumer choice can make a difference. Support local solutions to energy issues. A decentralised, diverse, resilient food supply system will help us manage a smooth move from oil dependency to local resilience. Ask for local and buy local.

Waste

Fifty percent of what goes into the average wheelie bin in Australia could (and should) be composted on-site at a household level.

When putrescible waste, that is waste likely to become putrid (for example, kitchen and food scraps), is added to wheelie bins it goes on to create big problems. The waste is picked up by a large truck, which runs on fossil fuel. It is then taken to a landfill site and dumped. Landfill sites are compacted and the waste then becomes anaerobic. Anaerobic putrescible waste produces methane. Methane is around 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide. There is also a great risk of pollution leaching into waterways from landfill.

About 50 per cent of the contents of the average wheelie bin could be composted.

Here is another way you can make a real difference. Learn ways to manage your household’s compostable waste on site set up compost bins and worm farms. Reduce landfill, reduce methane in the atmosphere, grow your own soil and put that back into your garden and grow your own vegetables and herbs. Simple, easy-to-do solutions for your family.

Transition Sunshine Coast

These are just a few of the many ways we can all individually and collectively do something significant about climate change and peak oil. If everyone makes changes it does make a difference.

In September 2007 the Sunshine Coast was recognised as Australia’s first Transition Initiative and the first outside the British Isles. The movement is taking off around the world as people and communities get together to act on climate and energy issues. The solutions to these problems go beyond what can be covered here in this article, but you can be part of those solutions.

Transition Sunshine Coast offers Australia’s only community education courses in energy descent action planning. Whether for your own home, your local neighbourhood, your community or for the entire region, energy descent planning is a structured and proven way to action real strategies across all areas of our lives that are being affected by fossil fuel use. Food, transport, water, waste, energy, health, communication, buildings, agriculture, infrastructure, development, education, governance, land use, natural ecosystems, employment, finance, culture, arts, heritage — its all there and it all needs to be addressed.

Community action is the way forward on these issues. We must all work together, make the necessary changes, demand and support change at all levels of government and work collectively and collaboratively toward a better future. But we must act now. Let the decision makers know what we can and should be doing.

Be part of the solution

Transition Sunshine Coast and the Sunshine Coast Energy Action Centre will be presenting a range of courses and facilitation workshops later this year to assist and support the community in preparing for climate and energy uncertainty. Using the established models of transition initiatives, re-localisation and permaculture, we will explore, discuss, plan and enact strategies to move our region and our supply systems from oil dependency to local resilience. From learning how to compost and worm farm, to contributing to a regional plan for reducing our energy use and dependence  join SEAC and Transition Sunshine Coast and be part of the solution.

We will be supporting the establishment of Transition Towns across the Sunshine Coast.

Transition Initiatives are based on four key factors

1. That life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable, and that it’s better to plan for it than to be taken by surprise.
2. That our settlements and communities presently lack the resilience to enable them to weather the severe energy shocks that will accompany peak oil.
3. That we have to act collectively and we have to act now
4. That by unleashing the collective genius of those around us to creatively and proactively design our energy descent, we can build ways of living that are more connected, more enriching and that recognise the biological limits of the planet.

Strategies for climate change and peak oil

• Community-driven solutions
• Transition initiatives
• Energy Descent Action Plans
• Climate-friendly communities
• Community supported agriculture
• Diverse and robust organic food supply systems
• Energy appropriate transport solutions
• Land trusts
• Credit unions and local economies
• Locally owned, decentralised energy supply companies
• Small decentralised solutions generally
• Not overextending limits of eco-systems
• Social justice and equity
• A strong emphasis on community education and empowerment

Further information: visit the Sustainability Hub

A study finds Nambour is relatively well protected from the expected blows of peak oil, however other Sunshine Coast locations won’t be so lucky.

A recent study has found Nambour to be relatively protected from the pain of escalating fuel prices.

As part of his environmental planning honours studies at Griffith University, Phil Woods questioned many Nambour residents about how rising fuel prices are affecting their day-to-day lives. He found the town’s facilities and infrastructure are cushioning many of the working and retired population. Even though others are feeling a pinch in their hip pocket nerve, they are not.

“Nambour is an old established town compared to the strip development along the coast,” Mr Woods said. “It has a localised economy of its own — a major hospital, a TAFE college, some industrial businesses, retail and commercial businesses, schools and so on. Without the coast, Nambour could still function quite well on its own.”

Nambour’s localised economy means that around one third of its workers travel less than five kilometres to work. Retirees in Nambour, too, are generally not feeling the pressure at the petrol bowser because, while many own cars, the number of kilometres driven is comparatively small. These are the people whose lives will probably continue unchanged if prices rise beyond two dollars a litre.

However another third of Nambour’s workers travel to workplaces more than 30 kilometres away. Others have children with diverse recreational and sporting activities requiring relatively long and frequent trips in parents’ cars on weekends. Others rely on social networks and interests in areas away from Nambour. These people are most vulnerable to rising petrol prices.

Many are already changing their habits to minimise their petrol costs. By far the most popular response was to plan ahead and undertake several tasks during one trip. Others were cutting back on holiday trips or non-essential expenses, using the smallest family car more, and car pooling.

“I was expecting to see the trends of using more public transport and moving to scooters and motorbikes, because this is what’s happening in other areas,” said Mr Woods. “However I found that people love the convenience, comfort and freedom of their car, and they see public transport as neither reliable nor comfortable.

“While in capital cities there was a seven-fold increase in scooter sales in as many years, and a doubling of motorcycle sales in general, Nambour drivers were concerned about bikes and scooters being driven off the road by cars. In cities, people turn to scooters because of congestion and traffic jams, but we don’t have that here in Nambour.”

The results of the study raise questions about how other parts of the Sunshine Coast will fare without advantages such as Nambour’s.

“In every town in Australia, almost everyone has a car, but it’s the amount of travelling done in that car. If where you live has a localised economy, then the population as a whole is probably less vulnerable,” Mr Woods said. “So coastal towns that only have tourism and accommodation, for example, are more vulnerable than Nambour.”

By examining impacts at a household level, Mr Woods’ study builds on work undertaken by Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe of Griffith University. Their 2005 report Oil Vulnerability in Australian Cities examines the impact of rising oil prices at a neighbourhood level. It found poorer outer suburbs in Australian cities are likely to be most affected by rising petrol costs because of their dependence on motor vehicles and limited access to public transport. In contrast, wealthy inner suburbs are less vulnerable because of their higher incomes and better access to public transport.

“The reason why rising fuel costs will impact on lower socio-economic groups in the outer suburbs is twofold. First, these households are already at a greater risk of adverse impacts from any socio-economic change,” Dr Dodson said.

“Secondly, these households are more dependent on cars for travel. This dependence means residents who rely on cheap petrol to drive to work or the shops are highly vulnerable to increased fuel costs. This may be compounded by the lack of alternative modes of transport, such as public transport, walking or cycling.”

Dr Sipe said governments need to understand how rising oil prices will affect Australian suburbs and plan to limit the impacts on car dependent neighbourhoods through provision of better public transport services.

The report found Brisbane’s outer growth corridors were most vulnerable to rising petrol prices. These areas included the suburbs of Beenleigh, Caboolture and Ipswich.

The report, Fuel for thought: the future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities, looks at the need to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s transport sector and how Australia can best deal with the reality of peak oil.

“This report puts policy makers on notice about government’s clear role to prepare Australia for the twin realities of climate change and increasingly scarce and expensive oil,” said ACF’s Sustainable Australia program manager Monica Richter.

“Australia’s economy has been shaped by cheap and abundant oil,” Ms Richter said.

“Transport is responsible for about 14 per cent of our total greenhouse emissions. When considering the design of Australia’s emissions trading scheme, the Government cannot just ignore emissions from transport.”

The report recognises the pain caused by soaring fuel prices and supports government investment in public transport. However, it also sees a future where fully electric vehicles are the norm.

“The CSIRO modelling predicts plug-in electric vehicles could account for about two-thirds of the kilometres travelled in Australia by 2050, so there is an urgent need for governments to help manufacturers re-tool to build cleaner cars here in Australia,” Ms Richter said.

“Decarbonising our society is a big challenge, but the sooner we start the easier it will be and the less it will cost us.”

The site was so remote that it took five days before D’Arcy got word by telegram in England.

“If this is true,” he replied, “all our troubles are over.” It was indeed true, and more rigs hit oil elsewhere in Persia, including another huge one in September.

How things have changed.  Whatever happened to telegrams?  Whatever happened to the oil?

The 20th Century will undoubtedly be remembered for the explosion of technology, steam, then oil, then nuclear and solar powered technology.  I stress, powered technology.  Most people confuse technology with energy and unfortunately, they are not interchangeable; something fast becoming obvious as we approach the 21st Century era of peak energy and limits to growth.

There is so much nonsense in the media today about the reasons why petrol (and diesel of course) is so expensive, that it’s mind boggling.  Surfing the media’s web blogs’ tailing articles on petrol prices quickly exposes the man in the street’s ignorance of the truth.  Not that we can point the finger at ‘people’.  The media, outside of publications like this one, is doing very little to educate or inform their readers or viewers.

So, when I predict that within as little as four or five years we may not be able to buy any fuel at all, at any price, people of course think I’m a complete nut case.  I can understand this.  The government is hardly showing signs of any such concerns, especially when they propose to build new freeways and tunnels to the airport.

Peak oil is often misconstrued as ‘running out’ of oil.  In fact, it’s ‘only’ the point at which roughly half the oil has been extracted.  This has been thoroughly documented in the USA which was by far the largest oil producer until after WWII.  That nation peaked in 1971 and even though the largest oil field in all of North America (Prudhoe Bay) was put into service shortly thereafter, US oil production never recovered: inexorably decreasing to its current level, slightly less than 50 per cent of peak.  Peak Oil is no theory, the American experience proves this beyond any doubt.

So what of Australia?  The news, I’m afraid, is grim indeed.  Australia’s oil production peaked in 2000.  The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has, for reasons known only to itself, consistently incorrectly predicted our future oil production.  This is most baffling.  Just who are they trying to kid?  Do they pick figures out of thin air?

Greens Senator, Christine Milne and Ian Dunlop, formerly an international oil, gas and coal industry executive, now also challenge our resources peak body for misleading everyone, not just once, but at least for five years running.  This, in my opinion at least, borders on criminal negligence.  One has to realise that very important decisions are made on the back of these predictions like enlarging airport runways.

When a nation’s oil production peaks, it must then rely on imports from elsewhere.  The US imports oil from Canada, Mexico (now collapsing) and Venezuela, with some top up from the Saudis and Africa.  We in Australia, you may be surprised to find out, import oil from Vietnam, PNG, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Brunei and, as a further surprise, New Zealand.  We actually get more oil from NZ than we do from Saudi Arabia.

There is a problem with importing oil from less developed nations.  They want what we have,  and they are developing at an accelerating rate.  Since Vietnam is our biggest single supplier (currently 28 per cent of all imports), let’s analyse their situation.

Figure 1 shows Vietnam’s oil production, which did not start until 1986 and steadily rose to a peak of just over 400,000 barrels per day in 2004.  It has declined ever since.

Figure 1

Figure 2 shows Vietnam’s domestic oil consumption, rising very quickly to 275,000 barrels per day (in 2006) as that country’s economy grew at a mighty 7.1 per cent annually — a doubling of GDP (and by definition, consumption), every ten years.  By now, production is probably down to 300,000 barrels per day and consumption is up to about 300,000 barrels per day.

So where’s our oil going to come from now?  And, how dare they use it all up!  Figure 3 shows Vietnam’s net export in virtual free fall from 175,000 barrels to 90,000 barrels per day in a matter of just five years.

Figure 2

At the time of writing it might be possible, that like Indonesia (which has just left OPEC), Vietnam has become a net oil importer, just like we are. Minister for Resources and Energy and Minister for Tourism, Martin Ferguson worries about a deepening trade deficit of some 25 billion dollars from importing oil, but I worry about there being none at all left to buy.

There is not the room here to analyse what is happening to the other nations we import from, but I can tell you that apart from the United Arab Emirates (representing just 12.5 per cent of our imports), the picture is similar everywhere, including Saudi Arabia.  Oil exporting nations are rapidly declining and soon there will be none to turn to.

Figure 3

Within five years (give or take a year or two), unless another Bass Strait is found, Australia will be left with a maximum of 10 per cent of the oil we now take for granted.  This is what extrapolating ABARE’s own optimistic data shows.

Now we might find another Bass Strait, but you have to understand that even if another 250,000 barrels per day of Australian oil comes on-line over the next five years, we would still only have about one-third of the current demand.

This is not the time to build new freeways and tunnels to airports, which may even be quasi abandoned within five years as airlines all over the world go belly up.  What we need is a major effort to build new rail infrastructure and other associated public transport.  I see no other option but to start rationing fuel and fairly soon, allowing only essential services like farming, medicine, fire brigades and so on to continue operating.  Time is short, we must act now.  We need visionary leadership.

Suggested reading:

The Oil Drum
Future Scenarios
Peak Oil
Discussion group
Permaculture Noosa
Liquid Fuel Emergency Amendment Bill 2007

About the Author: Mike Stasse is a Sustainable Housing and Energy Efficiency consultant and an accredited BERS energy rating Assessor.  He lives with his wife in the Noosa hinterland at Cooran in their Award Winning eco-solar house.

Also see Mike Stasse on You Tube.

With oil becoming scarcer and more expensive, government policies of subsidising oil consumption are delaying urgent action and directing vital funds away from long term solutions.

After growing for 150 years, the oil age is coming to an end. The term peak oil is one we will hear a lot more in the future. It refers to the time when the production of oil stops growing and starts to decline.

While the oil shocks felt around the world in 1973 and 1979 were caused by geopolitics, the 21st century shock of peak oil is largely due to the growing gap between demand and supply. The effects of peak oil will be profound. However the populist policies of State and Federal Governments that apply selective excise subsidies merely tinker at the edges of the price of fuel.  Mitigating the impact of peak oil means taking action that reduces our dependency on oil, in other words reducing its cost to consumers and industry. To date such action remains in the too-hard basket.

While some developed countries are reducing their oil consumption Japan has achieved a 10 per cent reduction over recent decades, and even the USA’s consumption dipped in 2006; such reductions are more than overtaken by increased consumption in China and India. China outstripped Japan in 2003 to become second only to the USA in its oil consumption. On current trends it will equal the USA in 2020. India doubled its oil consumption between 1992 and 2005.

These trends cannot continue simply because there is not enough oil in the world to sustain them. Demand is pushing the price up and if it weren’t for the rising Australian dollar, petrol today would be much closer to $2 a litre. Investment bank Goldman Sachs has predicted the price of oil to average $US141 a barrel in the second half of 2008, eventually rising to $US200.

The Queensland Government was warned of the dire consequences of peak oil in a report by the now Minister for Sustainability Andrew McNamara published in October last year. Queensland’s vulnerability to rising oil prices – taskforce report advised that tourism could be devastated by rising fuel prices as aviation and motoring costs increase.

The report’s predictions are now starting to become reality, with airlines the first to suffer and Qantas and Jetstar announcing cuts to schedules. The knock-on effect was immediately felt by tourism, the state’s second largest industry behind coal, and one highly vulnerable to changes in fuel prices. Not only is it heavily reliant on long-distance air travel, drive tourism accounts for 75 per cent of domestic travel in Queensland.

Around the world, upward oil prices are biting. General Motors, which manufactures larger fuel-hungry SUVs and pick-up trucks, recently announced it will close four plants in North America because of the pressures of rising oil prices. Chrysler too is feeling the pinch with a downturn in sales.

Given the dire warnings of peak oil and its time frame, only fundamental changes can cushion its effects. As Andrew McNamara said last year: “We will have to confront the reality that the society we have been used to living in is going to have to change dramatically.”

His taskforce report recommends: reduction in consumption of liquid fossil fuels, encouraging the development and use of alternative fuels, technologies and strategies, and preparation for demographic and regional changes, as Queenslanders change travel, work and living habits in response to rising fuel prices.

The report was hailed by commentators, one stating: “It marks the Queensland Government as the first state/provincial government in the world to recognise that peak oil is real and decide to do something about it.”

Since its release in October, however, the only update has been a February announcement that the government is developing a strategy. Calls to Mr McNamara’s office yielded no further information.

Any preparation for the shocks of peak oil is contradicted by the Premier’s early June announcement to fast track more urban sprawl. Some 17 sites in the southeast have been identified to help absorb a population growth of more than 20 per cent over the next 10 years. Areas earmarked on the Sunshine Coast are Maroochydore, Meridan Plains, Caloundra South and Palm View. Questions about public transport and services to these new suburbs remain unanswered. The conclusion is that the developments follow set patterns of oil dependence and in no way prepare future residents for the necessary altered travel, work and living habits identified by Mr McNamara.

Such preparation, as Mr McNamara no doubt knows, is expensive and not amenable to quick fixes. Around Australia, environment groups are calling for the billions of dollars currently spent on fuel subsidies to be redirected to fund critical changes.

In his recent address to the Australian Press Club, Don Henry, Executive Director of the Australian Conservation Foundation said the Federal Government should take fossil fuel subsidies and invest them in energy efficiency, better public transport and cleaner cars.

Likewise, community activist organisation GetUp advocates levelling the playing field through removing fossil fuel subsidies and placing a price on carbon, either through a carbon tax or a regulated cap-and-trade scheme.

Railways, cycle paths and public transport are a better investment than roads, says the Sustainable Transport Coalition, and the perverse policies that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport must be dismantled.

Mr McNamara said to parliament in February 2005: “Peak oil… will impact on our lives more certainly than terrorism, global warming, nuclear war or bird flu.” However, instead of action, the State and Federal Governments through their fossil fuel subsidies appear determined to either ignore the problem or entrench it even further.

Every generation has its taboo… the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don’t talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.
George Monbiot

Peak oil represents the most serious and immediate challenge to our prosperity and security. It will impact on our lives more certainly than terrorism, global warming, nuclear war or bird flu.
Andrew McNamara, Queensland Parliament Hansard, speech of 22 February 2005

Crude facts about oil

Oil is the foundation of our modern economy and our society, responsible for our wealth, transport, and production. The world consumes 13 billion litres of oil each day. A vast proportion of products we take for granted are derived from oil: fertilisers, computer parts, packaging, pipes, toys, and countless others.

Nineteen sixty four was the year in which the world discovered the greatest amount of oil. Since then each year we have found less and less. In 1982 we began consuming more oil than we were discovering. We now consume four times more oil that is discovered. The price of oil has risen from US$10 a barrel in 1999, through US$140 in June, and is tipped to reach US$200 before the end of the year. If it weren’t for the strong Australian dollar, petrol prices would currently be much closer to $2 a litre.

What is peak oil?

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it begins to decline. Global oil consumption is growing, and until now production has kept pace with consumption. However oil is becoming increasingly difficult to find.

When will it peak?

While forecasts for the date of the global oil peak range between right now and 2020+, there is growing consensus that the peak of oil production in non-OPEC countries will occur between 2010 and 2015. The CEO of Shell Oil said recently “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.” Last year the Queensland Oil Vulnerability Taskforce predicted peak oil will be reached within 10 years.

What are the likely effects?

Abundant, cheap oil has moulded our modern western lifestyles, so the impact of peak oil is difficult to overstate.

The shock waves as we slide down the other side of the oil production peak will affect our ability to move people and goods, grow food and other crops, heat and cool homes, provide health care, build housing, as well as to produce plastics, medicines, synthetic fabrics, computers and toys. In the USA, for example, each calorie of food is produced by burning 10 calories of oil; each gram of electronic microchips uses 630 grams of fuel.

As a sign of things to come, US chemical manufacturer Dow recently announced a 20 per cent price rise on its whole range due to the increasing cost of energy, feedstock and transportation. In the wide brown land of Australia, eighty per cent of oil usage is for transport. Queensland’s transport, mining, resources and primary industries are particularly vulnerable to increasingly expensive and scarce oil. And most of us live in car-dependent settings.

The threat of high oil prices brings predictions like the desertion of whole belts of outer suburbs, accompanied by the inevitable social upheaval that results from the loss of the Australian dream.
Adam Grubb of EnergyBulletin speculates that if oil reaches $5 a litre we will see suburban wastelands where abandoned McMansions are raided for their copper wiring, where people are forced to live in their cars, and destitute communities fall back on neighbourhood trading to survive.

“Many services of the welfare state may be withdrawn, depending on the political climate,” he speculates. “Restaurants, tourism, recreation, personal services and electronics are likely to be some of the hardest hit industries. The cheap airline industry will collapse. There may be food rationing of basic items.” Beyond Australia’s shores, there is the distinct probability of international conflict as wars are fought over remaining oil supplies.

Facts of petroleum excise subsidies

The Federal Government excise on petrol and diesel is approximately 38 cents per litre.

• Queensland:

The Queensland Government refunds just over 8 cents per litre of the federal excise via a Fuel Subsidy Scheme, resulting in cheaper fuel. The Queensland Government’s Fuel Subsidy Scheme cost taxpayers $528.52 million in 2006/07. The state fuel subsidy is currently received by anyone buying fuel at the bowser in Queensland, however the government has announced plans to alter the system so that only residents of the state receive it. How this will be administered and at what expense is not yet clear.

• National:

Under the federal Fuel Tax Credit Scheme, off-road users such as mining companies pay no excise on diesel. The scheme costs taxpayers $4.9 billion last financial year, up 38 per cent from the previous year, the equivalent $230 a year for every Australian. From 1 July 2008, mining companies will pay no excise on unleaded petrol under an extension of the Fuel Tax Credit Scheme.
Trucking operators receive a rebate of 18.5 cents a litre on excise, paid under the federal Fuel Tax Credit Scheme.

Fossil fuel subsidies: who knows?

For every $28 spent by the government on the fossil fuel industry, only $1 is spent on renewables. A Newspoll survey commissioned by Greenpeace found 78 per cent of Australians didn’t know that oil, coal and gas receive much more in the way of subsidies than renewable energy. GetUp’s Galaxy Research poll found that Australians overwhelmingly prefer their taxes to support renewable energy rather than fossil fuels.

Breakdown of fuel prices in Queensland

The following breakdown is based on a pump price of 147.4 cents per litre (already outdated) for petrol paid by a motorist. For simplicity, a component of ethanol in the fuel is not considered in the equation. In contrast, a mining company does not bear the cost of any excise or GST.

Alex mankiewicz

wanderer graphic

Illustrations depicting peak oil and its impacts upon society. Click on the following link to see a collection of images.